Reflections and Predictions - 26 December 2011

Well, we are back from Asia... We hope our readers enjoyed our entries from there, and we apologize for the long delay in writing here again. Re-adjusting (back) to life in another continent is not easy. And, of course, one must clean the house -- literally and metaphorically -- after a year away. Why we came back is a good question, but one that will have to wait for a subsequent entry here. Today's entry is about reflections and predictions concerning the topic of this blog, which is, still, cultural issues.

As the (Western) new year approaches, it is good to reflect on a few things that we pondered in the past and how they've played out. Take Myanmar. We were skeptical when there was talk of a "revolution" there some years ago, much as we liked the articulate and thoughtful Aung San Suu Kyi. And we were right; those protests amounted to nothing. Similarly, we said that the protests in Egypt would simply lead to military rule, and we were right there, too. Of course, some will argue that democracy is coming to Egypt, as soon as it goes through its process of elections, but let's see what happens...

Back to Myanmar. Everyone was excited recently about U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to that country. (Nothing about Hillary Clinton excites us, we should note. She represents yet another monolingual Secretary of State with very little geopolitical or cross-cultural knowledge.) The media in the U.S., and even one of our favorites, the British magazine The Economist, gushed about the embrace (literally) of Ms. Clinton and Ms. Suu Kyi.

But as some commentators noted, this was all less about a successful U.S. diplomatic effort and more about, well, Myanmar being in a bit of jam. Things with its current partner, Mainland China, are not going as smoothly as they were, and Myanmar's leadership is likely getting nervous. A hydroelectric project that China was going to carry out seems to have been cancelled, even though defense ties continue (see "Chinese and Burmese Army Chiefs Sign Defense Agreement"). The point of all this is as follows: Anyone who wants to understand this situation has to begin with the fact that it's all about economics. To readers outside the Western world, this will seem obvious. But many in North America and even the more pragmatic Europe think that decisions about diplomacy and military action have some kind of origin in morality, or supporting the underdog (e.g., Ms. Suu Kyi). The fact is that Myanmar has resources (natural gas, for one) and a strategic location, and that is why both Mainland China and the U.S. are making their plays.

What about the future? Well, our prediction for Myanmar is that there will be a split in the upper echelons between those who want to do business with the U.S. (although without, of course, allowing participatory democracy), and those who want to do business with the Mainland Chinese. The latter, naturally, will allow the rulers of Myanmar to govern in whatever way they wish; but the Chinese still do irk some of the citizens of Myanmar, since the Chinese have a great deal of economic power they can wield. Remember, too, that Myanmar, like other countries in Southeast Asia, has a significant ethnic Chinese population, and this also causes issues, even vis-à-vis external policies when dealing with places like Mainland China.

Other predictions:

1. Egypt's military will not relinquish control of the country any time soon. While elections will take place, the military will retain its central role in governing, directly or by proxy.

2. In the U.S., Obama will be re-elected, as the Republicans fail to offer a candidate who has sufficient appeal. As a friend of ours noted, the Republicans in some sense are content with this situation since they have in Obama one of the most conservative Democrats ever -- one who is a close ally, for example, of Wall Street. Obama's second term will see no major improvements in the economy, nor significant foreign policy triumphs.

3. The economy worldwide will continue to stumble through 2012, with the U.S. stock market fluctuating wildly. The fate of the euro is hard to predict, but it seems unlikely that the common currency will be undone any time within 2012.

4. The U.S. (regrettably) will come to accept its current unemployment rate as normal, and the "Occupy" movement will fade.

Finally, we have seen much celebration of the U.S. troops returning home from Iraq. (Actually, given their terrible sacrifice, there should have been much more celebration by the media of their return, regardless of what one feels about the war.) But things are not over; the U.S. has still left behind a significant presence there: one of the largest embassies in the world, and plenty of personnel, too. One should ask why; what is our mission there now? We ourselves don't have a clear answer, but it is worth investigating. Our conjecture is that 2012 will see Iraq begin to sort out governance issues, with the likelihood of a strong, central power structure emerging; some cynics say that the U.S. just wants a new dictator, but we say that what will evolve will be more like the single-party state of old PRI-run Mexico.

Have a great new year...